The escalating military conflict between the United States and Iran are pushing fuel prices higher and higher.
Following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February, tensions in the Middle East have intensified significantly.
In response to the surprise attacks, Iran has restricted acess to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical oil supply routes in the world. This narrow waterway is responsible for transporting roughly 20% of the world’s oil.
US-Israeli forces strike Iran
After years of buildup and tension since the Islamic revolution, the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 of this year.
Large-scale strikes targeted Iranian military assets and the Islamic Republic’s top leadership. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the process, triggering a dangerous ongoing series of retaliation between all parties.
Civilians and Iranian infrastructure have suffered immensely. More than 3,300 Iranian and Lebanese people have been killed. Approximately 13,000 have been injured and close to 3.4 billion have been displaced (CBC news).
Donald Trump is trying to pressure Iran into reopening the strait. Iran denied a proposal for a 45-day ceasefire and was subsequently given a “deadline” by the US government to open the straight by 8pm ET tonight, April 7th.
Trump doubled down on his threats and has violently threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Iran doesn’t comply.
War impacts everyone
Geopolitical conflict and the suffering of other people around the world inevitably effects those of us who seem “far away” from it — whether that be mentally, emotionally, physically, etc.
Compared to the immense loss of life, the recent surge in fuel prices due to the war on Iran is trivial.
At the same time, the reality is that when the supply chain is threatened, let alone an entire civilization, oil markets react immediately. Prices surge.
In this case, airlines have had to adapt almost instantly because jet fuel is refined from crude oil.
Since the strikes, oil benchmarks like West Texas Intermediate have jumped dramatically—rising more than 60% and sitting above $110 USD per barrel.
That kind of increase doesn’t stay isolated in the energy sector. It ripples outward fast, and air travel is one of the first places consumers feel it.
This is the part many headlines are glossing over: rising airfare right now is not just about “market conditions.” It is directly tied to geopolitical conflict, very real human loss and supply disruption.
Canadian airlines are passing on the cost
Airlines operate on tight margins, and fuel is typically their single largest expense. When fuel prices spike this aggressively, airlines have limited options: Absorb the cost
Reduce service Or pass it on to customers
We’re now seeing all three happen across Canada.
WestJet has introduced a $60 fuel surcharge on bookings made with companion vouchers. Unlike regular fares that can fluctuate, these vouchers are fixed—so the airline is adding a separate fee to offset rising fuel costs.
At the same time, WestJet is quietly reducing capacity. Flights are being consolidated, and lower-demand routes are being trimmed, with cuts of about 1% in April and 3% in May. Less supply, combined with higher costs, is a recipe for even higher prices.
Flair Airlines is taking a slightly different approach, adding a variable surcharge depending on the route. Domestic round trips are seeing around $40 added, while some international sunny destinations, like flights from Calgary to Mexico, are seeing fees closer to $60.
Even vacation packages aren’t immune. Air Canada Vacations has begun adding a $50 per passenger surcharge on select sun destinations, bundling it into taxes and fees rather than advertising it upfront.
Meanwhile, Porter Airlines has added a $40 surcharge to point redemption bookings, and Air Transat has already signalled increased surcharges for European routes.
Different strategies, same reality: airlines are finding ways to make customers absorb higher fuel costs.
Fuel surcharges are not the only price factor
While some airlines are transparent about adding fuel surcharges, others are simply increasing base fares.
According to industry experts, much of the cost increase is already “baked into” ticket prices. So even if you don’t see a line item labeled “fuel surcharge,” you’re still paying for it.
And it’s not just fuel. Rising airport fees, taxes, demand for travel and seasonal patters are amplifying the effect.
For cities like Calgary, where outbound travel demand is strong but flight capacity is relatively limited, the impact is often even more pronounced.
Bottom Line
Airfare increases right now are not just random, seasonal, or purely demand-driven. They are a direct downstream effect of a serious global conflict.
Airlines aren’t just reacting to abstract “market conditions.” They’re responding to a real-world supply shock and we’re paying for it.
If you’re planning to travel in the near future, booking sooner rather than later may be the difference between a manageable fare and a significantly more expensive one. Here are some valuable booking tips from leading industry experts.
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